Rupee posts biggest fall in a decade

MUMBAI: The rupee posted its biggest fall in a decade on Tuesday, hit by risk aversion and banks arbitraging a weaker offshore rate, although suspected central bank intervention stopped the slide just short of 47 per dollar.

The partially convertible rupee ended at 46.89/90 per dollar, off a trough of 46.99 which was its lowest since July 24, 2006.

The rupee fell 1.8 percent from its close of 46.05/06 on Monday, its biggest fall since May 14, 1998, according to Reuters daya, when the currency fell 2 percent after sanctions were imposed on India for its nuclear testing. One-month offshore non-deliverable forward contracts were quoting at 47.15/25, weaker than the onshore rate, indicating a bearish near-term outlook for the rupee.

That also created an arbitrage opportunity, where the dollar is bought against the rupee in the onshore market and sold in the offshore NDF market to exploit the price differential. "There are no (dollar) sellers in the market apart from the central bank. There is lot of oil, equity and NDF-related dollar demand, and even importers are covering near-term imports," said Madhusudan Somani, associate director of financial markets at Yes Bank.

"The rupee may test 47.20-25 levels in the near term," he added. Dealers said the central bank was seen selling dollars to halt the rupee's sharp decline, but sales were offset by demand for the US currency. At its low on Tuesday, the rupee was down 6.5 percent in September and more than 16 percent in 2008. Dealers estimated the central bank had sold $1.5-$2 billion to put a floor under the rupee on Tuesday.

Indian shares pulled out from a nosedive to end almost level on Tuesday after they had opened down 3.5 percent. Capital outflows from the local shares so far in 2008 total a net $8.4 billion, including $1 billion in September, a sharp turnaround from a record net inflows of $17.4 billion in 2007.

Traders said broad strength in the dollar versus other currencies overseas was also hurting sentiment on the rupee. The dollar steadied near 4-month lows versus the yen on Tuesday, but held gains against high yielders as investors took refuge in safe-haven assets following the collapse of Lehman Brothers.