It's a little early to recall help: Commerce secretary Rahul Khullar

After thirteen months of contraction, exports grew strongly in November last year, but a number of sectors are continuing to struggle in the highly competitive world market. In an exclusive interview commerce secretary Rahul Khullar talks about why it is important not to suddenly withdraw the stimulus package given to the industry merely on the basis of numbers and other issues. Excerpts:

Exports are no longer in the negative zone. Can we finally say now that exports are ready to stand on their own?

It is still too early. I am not going by the November numbers. That is history. I don’t want to extrapolate that into the future. But through December, I have had discussions with various exporters and that gives me good reason to believe that things are looking better than they were earlier. I can’t say whether those signals would translate into actual numbers immediately or in a couple of months because there is atime lag between orders, deliveries and payments.

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Is there still a case for continuation of the stimulus package?

We also have to see aggregate numbers. I have maintained that we will not be able to meet last year’s $188 billion. What is the point of saying, November or December numbers are 20% better, if in the aggregate you are not better off. Just because a patient in the hospital was almost dead yesterday but not today, is no reason to pop the champagne. I think you have to retain the stimulus till you see some recovery. After all, if keeping stimulus in place keeps economic activity alive, revenue comes in.

Some economists are of the view that the India-Asean free trade agreement will not fetch much benefit for the Indian industry and all gains will be on the services side. How true is it?

That is not fair. We have very strong interests even on the goods side. Laos and Cambodia may be small, but think of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia which are huge open economies and heavily import dependent. We have deliberately kept looking at the West. They (Asean countries) are our neighbours. We should make an effort and try to do business with them or else watch China take over those markets. Indian companies are already doing business there. Toyota Kirloskar was exporting stuff to Thailand till recently when they had to stop because of some glitch. Whirlpool, too, is exporting refrigerators there. We have to give it a fair chance.

Why are there still concerns surrounding the FTA?

I will tell you where the problem is. In 2004 we did an early harvest programme with Thailand. That got us a very bad name. On 74 lines, we reduced duties straight to zero. We were inundated with imports of these items. I agree that it was a mistake. But merely because you made a mistake once does not mean that you are going to do it again. Now I have protected my defensive concerns adequately and have pushed my interests.